Future Perfect: How to Systemize Long-term Performance Forecasting

From design to commissioning, useful construction forecasting lives in a continuous feedback loop, informed by changing data and results that direct refinement of systems to meet or exceed established goals. In reality, a forecast is only as good as its ability to inform future decisions.

This article explores the strategies and tools needed to embed long-term performance forecasting into operations and transform it into a tool for boosting efficiency and avoiding risks.

The Continuous Cycle of Forecasting

Long-term forecasting predicts how the mechanical, electrical and plumbing teams will perform over a building’s lifecycle. Results inform the design, construction and installation of systems, while also assuring owners of the ROI expected from their asset.

That makes performance forecasting a holistic pursuit. Systems and the specs provided by manufacturers are impacted by building conditions, and accurate models rely on such factors as expected and changing occupancy, climate, equipment runtime, energy consumption, maintenance and operating technology. Together, they draw a picture of the longevity and operational costs of a building and its systems.

Forecasting begins with a baseline generated from the hypotheticals of performance. From there, systematic procedures begin to measure actuals against forecasts. As real-time data is plugged in, the forecasts are revised and systems are optimized to stay on track toward established goals.

With each cycle, feedback becomes more granular and forecasts become more accurate. This continuous feedback loop informs and refines design and installation. Simulations with varied designs and optimizations show how different configurations are likely to perform in a set time period, such as 10 years.

The Key Considerations of Forecasting

Strategic application of key considerations supports effective forecasting and sustains the continuous feedback loop.

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  System Sustainability

  The holistic approach used in today’s buildings demands systems that meet sustainability standards and net-zero goals. Rising demand puts more pressure on MEP professionals to produce verifiable performance metrics. Details on every factor affecting system performance hone projections to their finest edge.

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  System Variability

  The intermittence and variability inherent in solar and wind energy can complicate forecasts of power generation and consumption. Electrification, too, can impact dynamic load shifting, with the unpredictability of people plugging into EV chargers or heat pumps turning on. While historical data can help forecast demand spikes, the timing and magnitude of power loads can be unpredictable.

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  Occupant Comfort

  The contributors to human-centric design are key performance indicators for modern buildings. Today’s forecasts encompass elements such as the indoor air quality, lighting and temperature controls that support the building’s operational goals for productivity, tenant retention and the overall health and comfort of the occupants.

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  Adjustments

  The positive feedback loop starts operating when systems are running. Current performance and output provide hard data to tap for forecasts looking into the future. Based on what is known, predictions can uncover discrepancies from performance goals, allowing for adjustments that put systems on track.

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  Data Integration

  The holistic, complete picture emerges from data points pulled from their siloes and integrated with multiple sources, such as weather, utility data, occupancy schedules, maintenance records or anything else impacting building performance.

Digital Tools for Creating & Using Forecasts

Building information modeling (BIM) is a foundational forecasting tool, with its 3D models encompassing a wealth of information and field data on components, materials, maintenance and projected and actual performance. Machine learning and algorithms can help develop future predictions by comparing historical data to real-time results.

For forecasting, BIM’s preconstruction clash detection and performance modeling generate the power to identify performance-impacting elements that might have been unpredictable or unseen otherwise.

As construction proceeds, augmented reality provides immersive reviews of complex layouts, identifying potential maintenance or access issues that could impact performance. With that knowledge, MEP professionals can improve their forecasts while removing the physical obstacles that could hamper optimal system performance and running time.

As much data as possible helps build forecasts based on the full spectrum of a system’s operations, but data hygiene is crucial. Clean data is inputted systematically and collected by properly calibrated sensors. It builds confidence and creates a foundation for turning the data into actionable insights for honing the forecasts and informing adjustments to the model.

The anticipated, preset factors such as occupancy and climate continue to drive the forecast, but the addition of real-time data sharpens the forecasts.

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Forecasting: A Circular Process

Strengthened forecasting fed by a constant stream of quality information becomes repetitive. Performance projections set on a continuous feedback loop cultivate a continuous improvement mindset, agile enough to respond to constant change and on the lookout for risk mitigation and operational efficiencies.

The feedback loop of projections creates a living record of system performance. When a system’s actual performance can be elevated to achieve aspirational levels, the forecast not only predicts the future but helps assure a building’s comfort, sustainability and longevity.

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